Peak processing
Here is an interesting article on some of the real physical limitations of our basic computing technology:
“Why the Computer is Doomed”
Omar El Akkad
From Saturday’s Globe and Mail Published on Friday, Jan. 29, 2010 4:03PM EST
A few months ago, a colleague of mine had mentioned to me that there are currently physical limitations to the production of processors, meaning that the constant upward evolution of processing power is hitting a brick wall. While there are different methods available, these remain theoretical or experimental and are nowhere near being scalable to mass market dimensions (and we need to remember that the current technology has been in development for decades). I suppose what this means is that, other than adding more processors, we will probably not experience great strides in mass consumer technology that we are used to seeing in the past.
However, the article also points out the issue energy consumption, especially how this affects large-scale super computers, but this is an issue that will become more of a general one when considered in conjunction to peak energy. The connection of these two issues is real since, ultimately, the evolution of the computer is entirely dependent on abundant cheap energy: for decades of research and development, mining and processing of raw materials (especially rare elements), continued improvements of equipment and manufacturing equipment, chemistry, a massive education system to continually contribute to its development (economic specialization), and oodles and oodles of cheap energy to make, ship, market, retail, use, and dispose of all these computers.
At any rate, just as the economists around the world are starting to realize that , yes, there are physical laws out there… meaning that our economic reality is based upon finite resources… we are realizing that Moore’s Law needs to be modified so that it is understood that it is predicated on inexpensive and seemingly endless energy as well as the simple laws of our physical world.
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2010: The year we realized that the modern economy is nothing but a giant Ponzi Scheme
I really need to start posting more uplifting items… but, as usual, I spent my lunch hour reading some of the news and financial sites I frequent and finally had confirmed what I have been suspecting for some time: that the modern economy is nothing more than a giant ponzi scheme. Of course, I am not the first one to come to this realization but even today I am really surprised at the level of negativity by those who would appear to know what is what when it comes to fianances and economics (and, of course, who are willing to discuss it).
It might be that modern economies are nothing more than the creation of a financial elite or cartel (and the politicians who empower them) which would include the U.S. Federal Reserve but it goes well beyond the U.S. and the 20th Century. I suspect that the true underlying cause was petro-wealth (cheap, petroleum-based energy) which was plentiful for most of the 20th Century. The bounty allowed developed nations like the U.S., Japan, Britain, Canada… to build a modern, growth-based economy where much of what was promised to citizens would actually be realized in the future. Promises and expectations blossomed.
Today, we are entering an era that will be characterized by expensive, hard-to-access and hard-to-refine energy. However, the promises and expectations are absolutely dependent upon vast quantities of cheap (20th Century) energy. And so, quite simply, something has to give. Unfortunately, it will most likely be our modern, consumption-based, cheap-energy-dependent, and put-off-until-the future economies.
And what will this mean? In some ways, I am sure it will affect your average citizen and his or her current lifestyle. But here is where I am less doom-and-gloom. While it will no doubt affect you and me (assuming you and I are both ‘average’ citizens of a developed country), I am sure it is going to affect the elites much more than anyone else. It will also affect governments (who are or who represent the elites) who tax away wealth and squander it (think of all the wars fought over the course of the 20th Century) or hand it over to those same elites (think of all the financial bubbles, printing of money, and corporate welfare/bailouts). For them, the Ponzi Scheme will no doubt end soon… and let’s hope it is a rather gradual and peaceful transition.
At any rate, these are some of the lunch-hour (or so) readings that influenced this post:
What Does Japan’s Implosion Mean For the Rest of Us? by John Rubino on January 26, 2010
Bernanke’s Doom Loop by Gary North
Banking on the State, Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrew G Haldane, Bank of England, November 2009
On the end of the era of cheap energy, see:
Aleklett, Kjell, Mikael Hook, Kristofer Jakobsson, Michael Lardelli, Simon Snowdon, Bengt Soderbergh. “The Peak of the Oil Age: Analyzing the World Oil Production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008.” Energy Policy, vol. 38, no. 3 (March, 2010): 1398-1414. http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/PeakOilAge.pdf
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The 2009 U.S. politics ‘Lie of the Year’
I just stumbled across this website–http://www.politifact.com/–which is the fact-checking website of the St. Petersburg Times, and it looks very interesting. Apparently, this non-partisan website has picked its 2009 Lie of the Year (I won’t give it away).
The wesbite looks very interesting and would probably be a very good source of information for your average U.S. citizen looking to wade through the political rhetoric and propaganda. In that, this is probably a very smart business model for the St. Petersburg Times (which has a good reputation for breaking important stories over the years).