massornament

During my educational pursuits over the past couple of decades, I have encountered many ‘movements.’  Whether they are creative, philosophical, scientific, or cultural, when proponents of those movements spoke, the term ‘paradigm shift’ was often evoked to signify the (sometimes justified) belief that these movements, at their core, provided their adherents with a new perspective from which to experience the world. But looking back on many of them now, it seems to me that almost all shared a foundational assumption in cultural progress and, whether they acknowledged it or not, constant economic growth.  If a movement, say, focused on cultural, religious or aesthetic progress (ones own aesthetic is, of course, always superior to any other) then it relied upon economic comfort in some form. If the movement preached progress in scientific or technological form, its assumptions too were predicated upon further economic growth or, more specifically, a constantly increasing supply of resources and energy.  Perhaps we could generalize even more and say that this assumption is what perhaps ties together every movement, empire, or even human civilization up to this point in time: the belief that progress is a given and that the necessary inputs (resources and especially energy) would always be in sufficient supply.

Of course, we know this is a fiction… finite resources are by definition finite.  And, more generally, so it would seem is progress.  The very fact that every civilization, empire, and movement has eventually witnessed its own demise is perhaps another indicator of these principles. Even so, there is the lingering belief (hope) that while specific empires may fall and movements wither, progress still applies to the species itself; ever expanding, always progressing in terms of technology, agriculture, engineering and ways in which to live.

The phenomenon of peak oil puts an end to this.

What we are living through (more or less) is the peak of the hydrocarbon age… a period of human civilization characterized by cheap and abundant energy derived from petroleum.  This has made everything possible.  The rise of industrial society, the agricultural revolution, chemistry (in particular, herbicides, pesticides, fertilizers, and pharmaceuticals), electronics and communications technology, modern standards of living, and even the expansion of democracy from the few to the many; all is dependent upon petroleum and its chemical and energy by-products.  What is unsettling is that judging from the available (but inadequate) information, this period is about to go into potentially irreversible decline.

While none of what I just recounted is new, an interesting piece of news was making the rounds this week that might just represent the final nail in the coffin so to speak.  What is most fascinating is that this tidbit largely went unnoticed given the importance and immediacy of other current events (the unfolding protests in the Middle East in particular) and the constant spectacle of celebrities, sports, and politics that always seems to overwhelm everything of real importance.  The news was Wikileaks documents from the U.S. embassy in Saudi Arabia discussing the possibility that the Saudi Kingdom might not be able to act as a swing producer nor be able to increase production in the future in order to meet projected world demand.  Saudi Arabia has been protected by the U.S. for more than the past half-century and for good reason.  It’s astonishingly abundant supplies of easy-to-access, easy-to-refine, and easy-to-transport petroleum has kept Western nations supplied with what is their lifeblood.  What is more, in the past forty years, Saudi Arabia has been able to quickly step in with increased production whenever supply has been disrupted.  While Saudi Arabia does not supply the U.S. directly with very much oil, it has kept oil prices largely stable and has supplied U.S. allies (crucial in the context of the Cold War).  What is more, these diplomatic cables point to something that has been suspected for some time: Saudi claims relating to their oil reserves have been greatly exaggerated, perhaps by as much as 40 percent.

Many oil producing countries are in decline and that is why unconventional supplies of oil (deep water, oil/tar sands) are becoming more attractive.  But this is not the light, sweet crude that dominated the twentieth century.  It is heavy, sour (high sulphur content) and extremely expensive and energy-intensive to both produce and refine.  And if Saudi Arabia can no longer act as the world’s swing producer or be relied upon to meet all the increased demand that is projected for the future, things are about to become very different.

Our development of alternative energy sources is very slow and very weak but even if we were to suddenly go on a spending spree to develop alternative energy (which we cannot afford since we are so bankrupt already), these energy sources do not really represent a viable, long-term solution simply because their energy density (what is available to humans) is low and are sometimes intermittent at their source.  Some are dependent upon finite resources (uranium for nuclear energy for example) and all are dependent upon abundant energy for their construction and maintenance.  Most importantly, these energy sources are often not well-suited for modern transportation.  I hope we do find some magical, new energy source but I would not hold my breath.  We have had the last one hundred and fifty years to develop and scale up the necessary technology and infrastructure needed to exploit petroleum and by all accounts we do not have any where near that amount of time to develop alternative energy sources.

As many oil geologists and others associated with the phenomenon of peak oil have been telling us, it represents the very real possibility that our species–in terms of both sheer numbers and cultural and technological development–has reached its apex.  What this all represents is the ultimate paradigm shift… unlike anything that we, as a species, have had to face before.*

I do wonder if most in the world, citizens of developed Western nations and those in developing nations alike, will be able to adjust to such a change.  Will we act collectively and cooperatively, set aside our expectations, and try to adjust as best we can?  Can we feed seven billion souls in a world where the necessary inputs needed for industrialized agriculture become increasingly scarce and expensive?  Or, will we resort to all-out resource wars to maintain some semblance of contemporary standards  of living?

At the very least, we are living in very interesting times.  And, if this turns out to be the ultimate paradigm shift, I am still very glad that I am alive at this particular moment in time… a singular moment where the human race–measured by its sheer numbers as well as its technological and cultural development–may very well be at its absolute peak.

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*Well, at least in recorded history.  Researchers who have looked into the genetic diversity of the human population estimate that the human species was reduced, at one point in the long distant past, to something like a few hundred breeding pairs… meaning we were likely quite close to extinction at least once in our past.