The Recession is sooo… 2009 (For the Upper Classes at Least)
Over the past week or so I have had a few conversations with friends and colleagues where the conversation turned to why–in the midst of a global recession and EU fiscal problems–that some companies are pulling in record profits and/or revenues. To me the answer is obvious but then, I guess, I have to remember that as someone with virtually no social life and who enjoys spending almost every spare moment reading and what not, I have the luxury of time to spend on such matters. For others (who have a social life or other family responsibilities) the seemingly conflicting signals coming out of the mainstream media about the economy would be exceedingly confusing.
When it comes to the media, we should always remember that most of these conflicting signals originate in a media echo chamber, itself filled by a mixture of mainstream and social media, which more often than not tends to latch onto good news without digging any deeper. This is why whether stocks or gold or currencies are up or down is such a major focus… it can be delivered quickly and spun in almost any way (good or bad). In an era where news is crafted into fifteen second sound bites and 140-character-or-less chunks it is easy to become convinced that being well-connected is therefore the same as being well-informed. And when those doing most of shouting in the echo chamber are nothing more than readers of government and/or corporate press-releases or are (paid to be) obsessed with the latest celebrity Facebook posts and Twitter ‘Twends’… it should not be surprising that people get confused or are sometimes completely misinformed.
A week or so ago, while listening to CBC Radio (coming out of Calgary so this shouldn’t be surprising), they held up another statistic stating that some high-end retail sector in the city is doing great and that this must be some sign that the recovery is here/gaining-momentum. This is typical of Calgary radio… economic analysis with heavy rose-coloured spin is a regular occurrence. Which brings me to the title of this post or at least the ‘the recession is sooo… 2009′ part. That was another statement made by someone on CBC radio in early 2010. Another rose-coloured, and completely misleading, statement made by a business reporter on our beloved public broadcaster. On the private broadcasters (I cannot even watch Global National anymore) it is just as bad. After Christmas, the stories centered around boutique brands and other high-end retail enjoying healthy sales over the holidays:
Porche & Lamborghini: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-10/porsche-rolls-royce-chasing-record-sales.html
Samsung: http://www.arabianbusiness.com/samsung-posts-record-q4-profit-amid-high-end-sales-boom-438831.html
And, of course, more recently, Apple: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/apple-profit-doubles-thanks-largely-to-37-million-iphone-sales-in-three-months/article2313464/
And this is not a recent trend either as is evidenced by these articles from approximately a year ago:
IBM: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/01/18/ibm_q4_2010_numbers/
High-end Retail: http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/03/03/retail-sales-high-end-most-trendy-teens-doing-best/
So, what is up? Should we be like the average CBC Calgary reporter and announce that this all is just more evidence that the recession (and economic worries) are “sooo… 2009″? that European contagion is a myth? that Canada is not in a housing bubble? That everything is just the fault of lazy Greeks and PIIGS?
As I said, I do not find this surprising at all and if you have been reading entries on this blog then you will know why. To me, this makes perfect sense. Since the global meltdown in 2007 and 2008, governments and central banks have been pouring trillions into various financial sectors and bailing out corporations in sectors like banking and auto manufacturing. And this continues. It continues because the crisis never went away; rather than being a solution, the actions of governments and central banks the world over were just an attempt to kick the can down the road… and funnel more money into the financial/banking sector (which donates lots to (re)election campaigns after all). The (intended) side-effect was that all that money-printing went directly to the upper echelons of the economy. With a few exceptions, such as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the upper echelon was preserved. The best example is the housing market in the U.S. As thousands of individual homeowners lost their homes, the lenders and mortgage brokers were thrown government-guaranteed lifelines. This is the real ‘wealth redistribution’ and not the kind that those on the extreme right banter about.
And this is reflected in the retail numbers. While the U.S. faces record numbers of people living under the poverty level or using food stamps (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-02/u-s-food-stamp-use-reaches-record-45-8-million-usda-says.html), high-end retail surges. The upper middle class and the elites in Western nations are doing fine (and are driving record sales in upscale, high-end, and boutique sectors). Their wealth has been preserved while the poor and the lower end of the working population are suffering and inflation is exported to less-developed parts of the world.
The dangerous thing is that for in the media echo chamber (which, let’s face it, is populated mostly by the middle and upper-middle classes) they look in the mirror and things seem fine. The mainstream media doesn’t tell anyone that the stock markets are kept afloat by a few profitable companies like Apple (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ieconomy-demonstrating-how-apple-distorts-market), Microsoft and IBM (mostly tech and energy companies) and the illusory effects of ramped up high-frequency trading (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/presenting-rise-hft-machine-visual-confirmation-how-skynet-broke-stock-market-us-downgrade-day). And the illusion is rebroadcast and retweeted endlessly so that it appears, on the surface of televisions and smartphones everywhere, that the recession is sooo… very 2009.
Deconstructing Linux and Building a ‘Heaven & Hell’ Linux PC
Over the past few months, and on account of a failing hard drive in one machine and wanting to build a PC for my sister and brother-
in-law, I have been fiddling with different derivatives of Debian Linux (Ubuntu, Linux Mint, etc.) as well as experimenting with some other odd Linux distributions on older PCs I have kicking around. I tried Linux Mint 10 (Julia), using the Gnome desktop and both 32 bit and 64 bit versions. I also tried Ubuntu 10.10 64 bit (with the Gnome desktop). I really liked Ubuntu 10.10 and I am considering putting it on the PC I intend to repair and rebuild. If not, then I will use Linux Mint 10 as the main operating system (OS) for that computer.
Linux Mint Explained
Linux Mint is derived from Ubuntu and focuses more on a casual user: basically meaning a user who does not want to fiddle with his/her computer. It comes with needed software to play most media and much of the administrative functions are streamlined in the form of a useful GUI, with accessible menus mostly replacing command line activities. Since Ubuntu is developed by a corporate entity 
(Canonical), it is respectful of and stays completely clear of any copyright and license concerns. Many other distributions add all kinds of functionality (like playing commercial DVDs out of the box) that at times exist in legal grey areas. This sometimes takes the form of hardware drivers and such. So, while Ubuntu is often considered as one of the most user-friendly version of Linux, it still can be daunting for casual users who plunk in a DVD thinking it just plays on any hardware. Linux Mint fills that gap while trying to provide most functionality and simplifying common but complex functions. It is so easy to use and secure that I have my mother (who is in her seventies) using a laptop running Linux Mint 9 and am building a computer for other members of my family that will be running Linux Mint 10.
It is in my estimation that the free and open source operating systems that centre around Debian and Ubuntu, and which includes all kinds of other software such as the Gnome or KDE desktops, and other versions based off of all this (such as Linux Mint) represent a branch of F/OSS operating system development that could (if it doesn’t already) compete with the major commercial, mass markets OSes out there. While I have not yet tried them, I have also heard that Mepis, PCLinuxOS, and Ultimate Edition are also friendly for newcomers to Linux.
Deconstructing Linux-based Operating Systems
A few years ago now, when I first made the decision to learn more about Linux, one of the central problems I had was wrapping my mind around what it actually is. I have used DOS and UNIX in the distant past, as well as various incarnations of Windows (1.0, 3.1, 95, 98, 2000/ME, XP, Vista and Windows 7). Likewise with Mac OS (including some of the earlier ‘System’ OSes, as well as OS 9 and OS 10.x). With Windows and Mac OS, the operating system is easily understood as there are basically discreet versions. However, with Linux, it is not so straight-forward. Firstly, there is the Kernel, the foundation for any operating system. And the Kernel is what is properly called Linux. Other software that forms the rest of the operating system is a collection of discreet but interconnected pieces of software. The user really does not directly interact with the operating system to any great extent but instead will more likely use other software packages that sit on top of the operating system such as word processing software, video editing software, etc. But that is not the end of it. Operating systems made for PCs and which use the Linux kernel come in different flavours, each made by different but interconnected communities of individuals. In the Linux world there are a few main distributions (such as Debian, Slackware, Fedora, etc.) from which many other distributions are built. So, in the case of the OSes mentioned above, Linux Mint is derived from Ubuntu and Ubuntu is derived from Debian. (To get a handle on the various ‘distros’ out there, search for “Linux Distribution Timeline” (an image search might be most useful) and it could lead you to a place like this: http://futurist.se/gldt/).
With distributions like Ubuntu and Linux Mint, there are in reality specific collections of operating system software, using a Linux Kernel, and packaged with associated bits of user software packages. On top of all that, these versions might come in different flavours of desktop environments (Gnome, XFCE, KDE, Unity) which offer different functionality and levels of complexity. As you can probably tell, I am most familiar with Gnome but I intend to explore some of the other desktops out there in the future. So, for someone coming from a Windows and Mac OS experience, all of this variability can be hard to comprehend.
Building a ‘Heaven & Hell’ Linux PC
All the versions of F/OSS Linux-based OSes have taken interesting lines of development, mostly catering to specific uses/needs and/or communities of users. Some are used for PC recovery and trouble-shooting, some for home theatre PC needs, still others for use in a network attached storage device or public kiosk PCs. Then there are others that cater to specific audiences and demographics. Scientists, media artists, computer and network technicians, and casual users have distributions directed at them and there are even distributions that are meant for spiritual, ideological, and aesthetic purposes.
Seeing the variety and the endless examples of how computers are used is fascinating to me and I often spend time looking at different 
distros (at places like Distro Watch). And this led me to a fun little project for this past weekend. I decided to turn an older Dell workstation into a ‘heaven & hell’ PC. Recently, I came across two distributions based on Ubuntu but with radically different agendas: Ubuntu Christian Edition (UCE) and Ubuntu Satanic Edition (USE). Not surprisingly, UCE is built for those of the Christian faith and is themed accordingly and comes bundled with useful software such Bible software software. USE is not directed at Satan-worshippers but metal fans. It is themed accordingly and comes with open source metal music. While UCE is more serious, USE is a little more playful. As I understand it, early versions of USE were simply themed content for use with any version of Ubuntu but they ‘suggested’ that it should be installed over an installation of Ubuntu Christian Edition. At any rate, I found this to be a fascinating example of how different communities have taken the open source software world and build it around specific communities.
Consider some of these Linux variations:
#! (http://distrowatch.com/table.php?distribution=crunchbang): designed to be lightweight and minimalist in its design.
GParted LiveCD (http://distrowatch.com/table.php?distribution=gparted): built to be used ‘live’ and to partition hard drives.
Linux Mint (http://distrowatch.com/table.php?distribution=ubuntu): based off of Ubuntu (which is based off of Debian) but designed with more built-in functionality and for any casual user.
MeeGo (http://distrowatch.com/table.php?distribution=meego): Originates from Intel and Nokia open source projects and aimed at netbooks and entry-level desktops, handheld computing and communications devices, in-vehicle infotainment devices, connected TVs, and media phones.
Puppy Linux (http://distrowatch.com/table.php?distribution=puppy): designed to be extremely lightweight, including use on older hardware.
Ubuntu (http://distrowatch.com/table.php?distribution=ubuntu): based on Debian, Ubuntu has become one of the most used versions of Linux and is designed for casual users world-wide.
Vinux (http://distrowatch.com/table.php?distribution=vinux): A remastered version of Ubuntu optimised for the needs of blind and visually impaired users.
Yellow Dog Linux (http://distrowatch.com/table.php?distribution=yellowdog): built for PowerPC architectures and can be used specifically on the PS3 (at least, before Sony removed that functionality from the PS3).
Zencafe GNU/Linux (http://distrowatch.com/table.php?distribution=zencafe): designed specifically for public Internet cafés and includes auto-recovery features, Internet café billing and management software, and other graphical system administration tools.
So, back to the ‘heaven & hell’ PC. I have an old Dell Precision 360 Workstation (circa 2002) that I use to play with (which mostly means 
I install versions of Linux on it to try them out) and decided to install both Ubuntu Christian Edition an Ubuntu Satanic Edition. Since they are installed side-by-side and I can boot into either one at start up, I now have a ‘heaven & hell’ PC. So far, I like both. However, I did install a relatively old version of Christian Edition (simply because I didn’t want to set up a torrent on the PC I was working on to get the latest version… so I just found an old version on the web somewhere). There are nice features on both but I have not really had much time to explore. Although I would consider myself an atheist, I attended the Catholic school system up until high school and still like many aspects of the New Testament. I also understand and respect the sense of community that religion can foster, especially its most humane forms (it’s the fundamentalists, of any religion, that I dislike). So, I did spend a little time with the Bible software and that was interesting (and brought back memories). The Satanic Edition was fun (even though it is slightly disrespectful to the Christian Edition… which is partly the intent for some using it no doubt). The wallpapers and 
icons were very well-crafted and if the metal/satanic themes are your kind of thing then it would represent a perfectly useful version of Ubuntu. I have yet to check out the music but that is on the list.
A word of advice to anyone wanting to try this: since I was working with a slightly older version of Christian Edition, it may have causes some hiccups with the installation and the ability to dual boot so that you can select one or the other from the menu at startup. If I was going to do this again, I would install Christian Edition first and then install Satanic Edition. That way you will get the entries for each (along with the ability to boot in safe mode with each and use the Memtest software). Doing it the other way around left the Satanic version without an entry to boot from.
Even though this is not the PC that I do any work on, I will try these for a time, particularly for web surfing. And it is a fun little project if you have a spare or old computer lying around. But it was intresting on other levels too. As an aspect of culture, both provide meaning, psycholigical comfort and aesthetic pleasure to their audience. Case in point, take a look at the ‘Loser’ wallpaper from the UCE. I know that those who are religious often feel persecuted. And while some of that is brought on themselves and some of it is more perceived than reality (not to mention that it fits in with the dominant tropes of Christianity)there is some truth to it too. The ‘Loser’ wallpaper speaks to this. On the other side, USE does something similar. A marginal form like metal is not very well represented in mainstream OSes like WIndows or MacOS and USE provides a playful and humourous OS directed at metal fans (which fans would no doubt argue is akin to a secular religion).
Finally, in the end, this just shows how free and open source software (moreso than commercial versions) can cater to individual needs and very specific tastes… which is awesome.
Peace
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PS. No harm nor disrespect was intended for either Christians or Satanists/Metalheads with the construction of this ‘Heaven & Hell’ PC.
Apple Pulls WikiLeaks App
Hmmm… it seems the Apple Afficianados are at it again. An app providing easy access to WikiLeaks materials has been removed from Apple’s app store with little explaination from the company. See this:
Apple Nixes WikiLeaks iPhone App. Will Google Follow? Andy Greenberg, Forbes’ Blogs
Yet again, major ‘tech’ companies prove they are not really interested in the information revolution but tying their devices to your bank account and controlling the information landscape for their own purposes. I’m sure that Apple’s lawyers had a hand in this–likely wanting to protect themselves from the wrath of the U.S. goernment–but it still speaks to the fact that all the hype about world-changing, game-changing, information technologies that empower the individual like never before is just marketing clap-trap… in reality, Apple and others are only self-interested with the desire to turn all media usage into consumer-driven, micro-transactions. Why engage with humanity, the environment or the wider world when you can blankly stare into the blue light of little, corporate-controlled LED screens where your perfected consumer image is constantly reflected back to you?
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Venture Capital and Technology… is the Tech Boom Over?
I have been blabbering on… to anyone who will listen to me… about my fears that the ‘tech boom’ we are living through is likely to end. And by ‘end’ I mean that it will take its place among other (sometimes struggling) industries and reach a level of normalcy. What this means is that the pace of innovation and heated competition–all fuelled by venture capital and the easy credit of the 1990s and 2000s–will be scaled back.
I teach media studies in a New Media department at a well-funded Canadian university. This means I am surrounded by well-meaning but caught-in-the-hype individuals who like to buy lots of iThings and assume (if they think about it at all) that it will all continue like this forever. They do not realize that the industry is extremely resource- and energy-intensive and that it has been heavily subsidized by governments (at all levels), venture capital, and monopoly money in the form of easy credit. Instead, they think that iPads are made in LaLaLaApple Land by happy little fairies (not slave labour) with materials that magically appear out of thin air (not mined by slave, migrant labour in some far off country controlled by some dictator friendly to Western corporations). Or, they assume that all these gadgets are magically powered by the sheer combined genius emanating from the craniums of Bill Gates, Michael Dell and, of course, Steve ‘God’ Jobs (he is the father of the ‘Jesus Phone’ after all) and not by an electrical grid that is increasingly under pressure from our air-conditioned, convenience-at-all-costs lifestyles. Or, they think that when they toss out their months-old smart phone (what makes it ‘smart’ again?) or GPS unit or PSP and then head on down to Sprawl-Mart to buy a newer and better one on their credit cards, that the old unit magically disappears, does not leach toxins into the environment, and certainly is not a waste of all of the labour, engineering, and the increasingly-hard-to-find precious metals and other resources. Today, technology for us Westerners is merely something to buy on a whim (and a credit card), use to a tenth of its capacity, get board with when the lustre (and fashionableness) wears off, and then discard. (One day soon, I am sure, we will be wishing we could rescue some of the mountains of discarded technology that are sitting in landfills.)
That is why I don’t think it is a particularly bad thing that this all will come to an end. With the financial industry (not just the housing market, the entire financial industry) having imploded, the mirage of free money appearing out of thin air starting to disappear, and–most of all–the shrinking of the middle class in Western nations, there is going to be little to continue to fuel the tech boom that laid the foundations for the technology that we are enjoying right now.
“Sure,” you might ask. “But what of the return to profitability? The impressive sales of the gadget and software? The fact mainstream media pundits can only talk about Facebook and Twitter? And that Steve Jobs is a friggin’ god? What do you have to say about all that?”
My reply would be that these things take time to develop. Most people have been convinced (more likely they convinced themselves) that this little ‘recession’ was over, and began spending again, apparently confident that everything would return to ‘normal’ (instead of realizing that we are returning to normal after many years of excess and fantasy). Politicians around the world handed over trillions (trillions!) in monopoly money to prevent the financial sector from melting away (along with their campaign contributions no doubt). And, perhaps most important, many people just cannot be bothered to pay much attention to all this until they are impacted directly.
But, today, I came across an interesting analysis of investment in the broad sector of technology development and it is extremely eye-opening:
“Technology Bubble Ten Years Back: The Money’s Not Back,” iTulip, Aug. 3, 2010.
Looking at some of the information presented in the article is very interesting and eye-opening. The level of investment ten years ago, and which disappeared after the tech- and other bubbles burst, was mind-boggling. One graph in particular shows just how different things were back then:
If you consider the investment made in software, telecom, and networking companies in 2000 as compared to now, the difference is huge. It is no wonder that we are swimming in a sea of tech gadgets today. And remember that it takes years for technology in established industries to make it into the marketplace. (It takes decades for technology in unestablished industries to make it into the marketplace which is why our need to develop alternative energy sources–and new gadgets, including vehicles, that will run off that alternate energy–is so desparate.)
As I said previously, I don’t think this is a bad thing. If we return to normal sure, we might not buy new gadgets like we did in the last decade, but we will learn to live with that. Some sectors of the economy and some in these indstries might be affected, but these are companies that built business models that are entirely reliant upon a creadit-fuelled, highly subsidized system where we act like complete, mindless consumers… and these companies will not be as profitable (and some might not survive) in this new market that looks like it might be based more on reality and not reliant on phantom money and subsidized by future debt and tax-payer money.